Is there light at end of 2008 for the Michigan housing Market? This is what I call a good news article for what appears to be a never ending downward turn in the housing market for Michigan. I personally see a downward trend through 2008 with a turn in the market in 2009. This republished Oakland Press Article by Art Daniels and Ralph Marcus Maupin (Mark) hold prove to this.
PUBLISHED: Tuesday, November 20, 2007
State may soon see job gains
By JOSEPH SZCZESNY
Of The Oakland Press
The Michigan economy, including Oakland County's, will continue to lose jobs in 2008, but the losses should be smaller and real gains are on the horizon, according to one economic forecast.
In their annual look at the Michigan economy, University of Michigan economists George Fulton, Joan Crary and Saul Hymans predicted the state is on its way to losing 76,000 jobs during 2007-the most since 2001- and another 51,000 jobs during 2008.
If the forecast proves accurate, 2008 would mark the eighth consecutive year of job losses for the state, the economists said as they presented their forecast for the Michigan economy at U-M's annual economic outlook conference in Ann Arbor.
Michigan will lose 24,000 manufacturing jobs this year, 25,000 during 2008 and 10,000 the year after. About two-thirds of these losses will be in the auto industry. By comparison, the state lost 38,000 manufacturing jobs, including 27,000 auto jobs, during 2006.
Fulton, who is part of the forecasting team and a longtime student of the Oakland County economy, said the losses have seeped into every part of the state and undermined the spirit of residents.
"Part of the problem is this has been going on for so long," he said. "The job losses were much worse in the early 1980s, but I've talked to residents who were here then and they say this is much worse psychologically.
"Everyone understands these jobs are gone forever," he said.
"During the seven-year interval ending in mid-2000, the state basked in its greatest economic prosperity in a generation as more than 700,000 jobs were created," said Fulton.
"In the seven years that followed, job losses cumulated to just short of 400,000 workers - 70 percent in manufacturing activities that have long formed the core of the Michigan economy," he said.
Crary, however, said if the national economy picks up momentum and domestic automakers can stabilize their market share, Michigan can expect a net gain of 15,000 jobs in 2009.
"Not exactly the feast we might like, but at least a decent meal," Crary said.
The improvement in 2009, according to the forecast, would come from fewer job losses in the auto industry as the Detroit Three's light vehicle sales stabilize and from a local housing market that begins to turn around, thereby jumpstarting the construction industry.
Most of the job gains are in the service industries, particularly in fields such as health care and education, which are adding two jobs for every manufacturing job lost during 2009. In addition, business services, an area in which Oakland County is strong, will begin to add jobs again, starting in the second half of 2008.
Fulton said Oakland County and Ann Arbor will power the states recovery because the areas both have a large number of well-educated workers, which are critical to economic vitality in the 21st century. After a flat year in 2007, service industries will account for 24,000 net job gains during the next two years - mostly in 2009, the forecast predicts, while education and health services will add 7,000 jobs this year, 10,000 next year and 9,000 the year after.
With payroll jobs declining by more than 1 percent per year, Michigan's unemployment rate is expected to rise from 7.6 percent at the end of this year to just over 8 percent by the end of 2008 and throughout 2009 - the highest rates since 1992. Michigan's tax revenues also will decline next year, she said.
Crary, however, also said that despite projections for more job losses in the short term, Michigan's economy has shown a good deal of underlying resilience.
"Since the turn of the millennium, the state's job market has been running at a pace that could be described as two steps forward, three steps back," Crary said.
"Because we have been continually losing ground, there is an air of pessimism that makes it seem as if there were no movement but backward. But that's not all there is to the story. The two steps forward also have something to tell us. What they say is that the potential is there for the forward momentum to break through and eventually dominate," she said.
"Recently released data show that, alongside the losses, the state's economy consistently produces a very large number of job gains. There must be some vitality in an economy that can continue creating jobs even though it's not keeping pace with the leakage. If the leaks can be plugged, the state's economy and labor market have the capacity to grow and prosper," Crary said.
Contact staff writer Joseph Szczesny at (248) 745-4650 or joe.szczesny@oakpress.com .
Art Daniels
248-802-3116
PUBLISHED: Tuesday, November 20, 2007
State may soon see job gains
By JOSEPH SZCZESNY
Of The Oakland Press
The Michigan economy, including Oakland County's, will continue to lose jobs in 2008, but the losses should be smaller and real gains are on the horizon, according to one economic forecast.
In their annual look at the Michigan economy, University of Michigan economists George Fulton, Joan Crary and Saul Hymans predicted the state is on its way to losing 76,000 jobs during 2007-the most since 2001- and another 51,000 jobs during 2008.
If the forecast proves accurate, 2008 would mark the eighth consecutive year of job losses for the state, the economists said as they presented their forecast for the Michigan economy at U-M's annual economic outlook conference in Ann Arbor.
Michigan will lose 24,000 manufacturing jobs this year, 25,000 during 2008 and 10,000 the year after. About two-thirds of these losses will be in the auto industry. By comparison, the state lost 38,000 manufacturing jobs, including 27,000 auto jobs, during 2006.
Fulton, who is part of the forecasting team and a longtime student of the Oakland County economy, said the losses have seeped into every part of the state and undermined the spirit of residents.
"Part of the problem is this has been going on for so long," he said. "The job losses were much worse in the early 1980s, but I've talked to residents who were here then and they say this is much worse psychologically.
"Everyone understands these jobs are gone forever," he said.
"During the seven-year interval ending in mid-2000, the state basked in its greatest economic prosperity in a generation as more than 700,000 jobs were created," said Fulton.
"In the seven years that followed, job losses cumulated to just short of 400,000 workers - 70 percent in manufacturing activities that have long formed the core of the Michigan economy," he said.
Crary, however, said if the national economy picks up momentum and domestic automakers can stabilize their market share, Michigan can expect a net gain of 15,000 jobs in 2009.
"Not exactly the feast we might like, but at least a decent meal," Crary said.
The improvement in 2009, according to the forecast, would come from fewer job losses in the auto industry as the Detroit Three's light vehicle sales stabilize and from a local housing market that begins to turn around, thereby jumpstarting the construction industry.
Most of the job gains are in the service industries, particularly in fields such as health care and education, which are adding two jobs for every manufacturing job lost during 2009. In addition, business services, an area in which Oakland County is strong, will begin to add jobs again, starting in the second half of 2008.
Fulton said Oakland County and Ann Arbor will power the states recovery because the areas both have a large number of well-educated workers, which are critical to economic vitality in the 21st century. After a flat year in 2007, service industries will account for 24,000 net job gains during the next two years - mostly in 2009, the forecast predicts, while education and health services will add 7,000 jobs this year, 10,000 next year and 9,000 the year after.
With payroll jobs declining by more than 1 percent per year, Michigan's unemployment rate is expected to rise from 7.6 percent at the end of this year to just over 8 percent by the end of 2008 and throughout 2009 - the highest rates since 1992. Michigan's tax revenues also will decline next year, she said.
Crary, however, also said that despite projections for more job losses in the short term, Michigan's economy has shown a good deal of underlying resilience.
"Since the turn of the millennium, the state's job market has been running at a pace that could be described as two steps forward, three steps back," Crary said.
"Because we have been continually losing ground, there is an air of pessimism that makes it seem as if there were no movement but backward. But that's not all there is to the story. The two steps forward also have something to tell us. What they say is that the potential is there for the forward momentum to break through and eventually dominate," she said.
"Recently released data show that, alongside the losses, the state's economy consistently produces a very large number of job gains. There must be some vitality in an economy that can continue creating jobs even though it's not keeping pace with the leakage. If the leaks can be plugged, the state's economy and labor market have the capacity to grow and prosper," Crary said.
Contact staff writer Joseph Szczesny at (248) 745-4650 or joe.szczesny@oakpress.com .
Art Daniels
248-802-3116
Labels: job market, jobs, jobs in michigan, michigan economy, michigan job market, michigan unemployment
posted by Ralph Marcus (Mark) Maupin | 4:09 PM
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